tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post2764483690441377521..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: The Futility of QETrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-60491086146688920412012-06-09T08:17:02.573-07:002012-06-09T08:17:02.573-07:00Great Post, but I've been wondering... is it p...Great Post, but I've been wondering... is it possible the Fed's motive is not really to stimulate the economy at all, but rather lock in 30 year financing for itself at laughable levels? If I were a country, and could finance myself for 30 years at under 4%, I sure would. Especially knowing that my biggest hope going forward was a huge infrastructure build to take advantage of my natural gas resources, I would want to make sure I was strapped with expendable cash.Ben Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12593859634490094539noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-58902337516582630482012-06-09T06:33:39.900-07:002012-06-09T06:33:39.900-07:00Dan, ypou say:
" Maybe they will actually buy...Dan, ypou say:<br />" Maybe they will actually buy stocks or stock indices. After all, if they can push the stock market higher and discourage any potential short sellers from entering, the rising stock market would do wonders for investors 401K’s and other retirement plans." and you add:<br />"Of course I am being facetious here" <br /><br />I do not think you are being "facetious". We are in an election year and Bernanke will do whatever possible to get Obama reelected. We do we have so far in favor of Obama? Not much if anything. The economy is down, jobs are disappearing and the media can not find any new "good" excuse to explain the situation...except shooting down the "bad" European leaders...(what a joke coming from the USA!), the real estate market is still falling despite low interest rates (the lowest in decades)...<br /><br />So what is left in helping Obama reelection? Something he can use during the next few months? Something different from the usual attack against the Republican...<br /><br />Sadly I would say 2 things and 2 things only (and if I am right it would show how low the American people went down):<br /><br />1- The price of gas at the pump. So far so good. The question is how long can the Fed depresses the prices. Remember Bernanke was sayingh last week that the economy was moving forward thanks to the lower price of gas that leaves more money in the consumer pockets.<br /><br />2- The strength of the stock market. And this is why I am saying you are not being facetious. The fact is the Fed stats show that household net worth was up $2.8T at the end of 3/2012 vs the end of 12/2011. Here from the Fed:<br /><br />"Household net worth—the difference between the<br />value of households’ assets and liabilities—was<br />$62.9 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2012,<br />about $2.8 trillion more than at the end of the fourth<br />quarter. The first-quarter increase was led by<br />advances in directly and indirectly held corporate<br />equities and mutual funds."<br /><br />So YES the value (and manipulation)of the stock market and its indexes will be part of the next QE. <br /><br />By the way it is my opinion that if the Fed had given the 2.3T in stimulus money back to the taxpayers the economic effect would have been stronger than the pitiful effect we have seen so far.Huberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05233332512788687701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-5021081306433775782012-06-05T17:24:01.540-07:002012-06-05T17:24:01.540-07:00They (FED and Large Banks along with the Internati...They (FED and Large Banks along with the International Central Banks and the MSM) are manipulating everything. It is as if it is transparent. Dan is publishing charts that are reflective of numbers, which are reflective of Policies of THEY. If we do not change course we should all know that the end game is "Socialism". There is of course several stops along the way. Breakdown of markets, Political power grabs, Federal Court changes, Federal Reserve head changes, Political leader changes. We see them all the time. Ask yourselves, Who is the leader now in charge in France? Who were the last two Federal Reserve members just added to the others? Who is in charge of Greece? Who is in charge of Italy? Where does all this go? Dan is extremely astute and is very sure of what is going on. Thanks for all he does!! I have become very educated on the future. Hold that Gold, until the picture dictates something different. Narcisism and Control are what is trying to take everything from independent US Citizens. Thanks Dan!!!White Wolfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13965194184809848345noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-54684961521213575872012-06-04T15:23:45.182-07:002012-06-04T15:23:45.182-07:00I believe that PMs performance is ultimately a ref...I believe that PMs performance is ultimately a reflection of the fears of fiat currency. The closer it looks like we are to a collapse in fiat currencies, the more PMs will be seen to serve as an alternative.<br /><a href="http://www.greenworldbvi.com/about-socially-responsible-global-green-real-asset-investments" rel="nofollow">real asset investments</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12829375621188204129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-38065303307509404602012-06-04T02:45:16.884-07:002012-06-04T02:45:16.884-07:00why should pm's rally in the face of a collaps...why should pm's rally in the face of a collapsing money velocity? how can inflation rise in the face of no lending, a collapsing economic activity? HOW CAN THERE BE ANY CAPITAL FORMATION, INVESTMENT RISK ANALYSIS, WHEN THE PRICING MECHANISM FOR MONEY, RISK, INVESTMENT, IS NOW ADMINISTERED, AND NOT MARKET DRIVEN? does the latter not ensure a global depression?<br />this is a reminder that the idols men choose to worship during the night are found face down in the dirt come the morning.james petersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15780683224847353415noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-76973065211726524222012-06-03T19:21:09.133-07:002012-06-03T19:21:09.133-07:00Dan:
i want to thank you so much for your wo...Dan: <br /> i want to thank you so much for your work, and sharing it with us, this piece of yours was the best i have read in a long time, simple , full of truth, i come here everyday, and i dont post much because iam still learning, and your one person on a short list that i trust..lol... <br /><br />corect me if iam wrong but isnt QE sort of like jump starting a friends car,, it works, but if you dont fix the car ''economy'' wont it just break down again....goldmelterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10577483485272166096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-27546699539269831492012-06-02T10:03:18.190-07:002012-06-02T10:03:18.190-07:00Laurence - thanks for the kind words. Yes, that is...Laurence - thanks for the kind words. Yes, that is exactly what I was doing - just basically writing down some thoughts I have been having while sitting and thinking about all this mess.<br /><br />Hopefully it makes some sense. It certainly is not an economic treatise! That is beyond my pay grade! For the life of me however I cannot see how lowering interest rates even further than they currently are is going to do a single bit of good to cure what ails us.Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-43361935874336559452012-06-02T10:00:10.814-07:002012-06-02T10:00:10.814-07:00Henri - my thinking on this is that if the US were...Henri - my thinking on this is that if the US were to default on its debt, the entire global economy would crash. The reason is because so many nations are holding large portions of their national reserves in the form of US Treasuries. In other words, their nation's wealth would disappear overnight. Such a thing would be unthinkable in my view.<br /><br />My guess is that they will try to devalue the dollar instead - the problem that they are running into is that as bad as the Dollar is, the Euro is even worse right now!Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-85224783240844409772012-06-02T09:08:33.821-07:002012-06-02T09:08:33.821-07:00Dan, what struck me here is that you just sat down...Dan, what struck me here is that you just sat down and wrote out your view of the present situation, expressing your current thoughts. Interestingly, this is highly coherent and one of your best pieces. Good job!Laurence Hunthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16512608792667325309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-37041787475324139022012-06-02T08:48:27.849-07:002012-06-02T08:48:27.849-07:00Hi Dan,
What if the piper is not paid his due?
Wh...Hi Dan,<br /><br />What if the piper is not paid his due?<br />What about an Icelandic scenario?<br />What about a default, pure and simple, of the US within the near future, on a significant part of its debt?<br />Does it not make sense somehow?Henrihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05972520061783495875noreply@blogger.com