tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post2736877041972648154..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Weekly Gold close setting up to be ImportantTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger35125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-29873004096244874252014-10-31T00:43:48.528-07:002014-10-31T00:43:48.528-07:00Also, his preferred asset class is real assets lik...Also, his preferred asset class is real assets like real estate and diamonds, not stocks. Why? Because of the urgent need of anyone in the West to get off the grid. The US and Euros are heading towards taxing and stealing all your stock profits - and perhaps all your financial assets that they're now tabulating.Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-66014615532238936542014-10-31T00:39:31.681-07:002014-10-31T00:39:31.681-07:00Look at the Monthly too.... probably will close at...Look at the Monthly too.... probably will close at its lowest level since yr 2010!Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-9264876363015648602014-10-31T00:38:16.648-07:002014-10-31T00:38:16.648-07:00I think his stock index calls are much more nuance...I think his stock index calls are much more nuanced than that.... they are contingent on levels, like any other cyclical-based TA. In particular, the phase transition could happen soon (which means the USA would face economic death by 2016), or else the phase transition in stocks is deferred for a couple of years (but that requires new lows in stocks first - soon), in which case the economic death of USA is deferred a few more years until after the phase transition ends. Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-36966973311536407132014-10-31T00:37:29.000-07:002014-10-31T00:37:29.000-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09385479861947358780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-40841266063657443552014-10-30T23:41:20.581-07:002014-10-30T23:41:20.581-07:00The first quarter of 2015 awaits for the final low...The first quarter of 2015 awaits for the final low in the metals. Should be marked by mergers and acquisitions with banks trying to position to scoop up some of the carnage.<br /><br />Anyone following Armstrong's emails? It's uncanny how his targets get hit or float close around them. Sure he has more than one target during the day but confirmation is what is hit for telling the next move. He has been saying for years that Euroland will fold then Japan and any escaping monies will nest in the US markets until the US defaults but that is still years away. He likes the S&P more than DOW this time around so it would be buy the dips on the way up to newer highs as money looks for a parking space.anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13458537409932488443noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-16479801974533589912014-10-30T23:25:18.054-07:002014-10-30T23:25:18.054-07:00http://www.etf.com/sections/blog/23667-value-trap-...http://www.etf.com/sections/blog/23667-value-trap-underneath-gold-miner-fund-gdx.html?fullart=1&start=3Ophelia Ballshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13825169236106222239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-51287069970322703002014-10-30T20:03:23.134-07:002014-10-30T20:03:23.134-07:00Linh...I hope you didn't find my remarks about...Linh...I hope you didn't find my remarks about the asian market as denigrating them.<br />I meant it in context to what the shills have been pumping for years that hasn't happened "yet". <br /><br />DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-78168776146516752042014-10-30T19:00:09.031-07:002014-10-30T19:00:09.031-07:00Think that is bad - wait until Gold goes all the w...Think that is bad - wait until Gold goes all the way to $700 or $800Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08641891070454061702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-38882233802108727942014-10-30T18:57:20.257-07:002014-10-30T18:57:20.257-07:00INDEED! BTW - ZH is run by a guy who was banned f...INDEED! BTW - ZH is run by a guy who was banned from trading because of insider trading ....Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08641891070454061702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-66170921027832289882014-10-30T18:55:33.305-07:002014-10-30T18:55:33.305-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08641891070454061702noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-8166905984544787042014-10-30T16:55:57.959-07:002014-10-30T16:55:57.959-07:00It'll be interesting to see what happens in go...It'll be interesting to see what happens in gold or silver when the asian markets open up.<br />I won't hazard a guess but I'd be surprised if it traded sideways for much longer like it has been the last several hours given the action we saw today.<br /><br />All of this much ballyhooed asian demand the last several years generally hasn't seen the asian markets make any significant upwards price movements except maybe around 1:30-2:00 a.m (EST) but not that often.<br /><br />The asian markets being a disruptive force and a monkey wrench in the London/NY markets is still a non-factor.<br />DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-37431519695868509562014-10-30T16:01:58.002-07:002014-10-30T16:01:58.002-07:00I think they did GDXJ when it hit single digits. ...I think they did GDXJ when it hit single digits. Who knows, maybe it will hit again.Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-65351203049352541942014-10-30T14:59:47.062-07:002014-10-30T14:59:47.062-07:00WillyDog-Add to this constant write downs to PP&am...WillyDog-Add to this constant write downs to PP&E for deposits that were un- economic at 1,600, 1,400 and now 1,200 gold. <br /><br />One imagines the whole house cleaning thing needs to take place--miners will keep writing down to $1,000 gold. Along the way a lot more will drop from sight. A few big miners with core assets that break even well below $1,000 will survive--but in the meantime they will put their marginal assets on care & maintenance.<br /><br />By the way, I would guess that the last bull run in miners was facilitated by the opening up of geographies previously un-minable due to politics--So miners were doubly blessed by increasing gold prices and new mines in former Soviet bloc, China, Mongolia, et. al.MDLGTOhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15988611490410921827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-80032396551389400232014-10-30T14:57:12.650-07:002014-10-30T14:57:12.650-07:00Thank Dan for excellent point of view about gold. ...Thank Dan for excellent point of view about gold. All the guys who try doing swing with long bottom trouble now. I don't know what your software but mine reading on ADX already up to 25.30 for today Thursday so a bearish trend technically already begins. DI - DI + cross over happened on Oct 23 with ADX standing at 29. It was legitimate. The High of that day (1245$) is a key resistance. Daily MACD has crossed down on Oct 28. If trend confirms, the target will be 1050$. Usually, the price of gold fills the gap between previous level of swing high and next swing low but I saw gold not filled between 970$ and 1046$. I think gold will touch that gap sooner or later.My 2 centsAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13633775531662488818noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-37574998815402935352014-10-30T14:30:54.768-07:002014-10-30T14:30:54.768-07:00as Dan indicated in his last Ags titled post, soym...as Dan indicated in his last Ags titled post, soymeal been fairly 'crazy'. what would be said if SPX went +30% in a week like soymeal did!?<br /><br />cme raised margins on soymeal last nite, and today soymeal had some cancellations on the export report:<br />Soymeal sales of 147,800 metric tons were up considerably from the prior week, but there also were nearly 124,000 in cancellations, possibly an indicator high prices are turning buyers away.<br /><br />soymeal made a contract low oct 1st and came within 3 of the contract high today .. same month wowo!<br /><br />jan soybeans have been doing 'alternation' which for the pattern continue will be green friday: last friday was a big down day, then monday a big up day, then tuesday threw the finger closing 30 off the high o day, then weds big up and today down.<br /><br />tonite CME raises margins on Euro FX, E-mini NASDAQ, Nikkei 225.<br /><br />(CME Daily Livestock Report) Strong demand for US beef in Asia continues to underpin the US beef market..<br /><br />TGIF!<br /><br />77https://www.blogger.com/profile/05390025091154704970noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-51271538587339558552014-10-30T14:09:12.225-07:002014-10-30T14:09:12.225-07:00That was the much-maligned Keynes who said that. ...That was the much-maligned Keynes who said that. A real live trader who also took his lumps.<br /><br />http://www.maynardkeynes.org/keynes-the-speculator.htmlEric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-48124181153380392972014-10-30T13:59:26.113-07:002014-10-30T13:59:26.113-07:00jmsvett;
I cannot remember who said it but here i...jmsvett;<br /><br />I cannot remember who said it but here is the quote:'<br />"Markets can remain irrational long after you are insolvent".<br /><br />Keep in mind that all of that money created by the Fed has to go somewhere. It is not sterile and just not sit there but it ends up chasing yield. The only place throwing off a decent yield is equities. As long as that is the case, the US stock market can keep chugging merrily along. <br /><br />It will go up until it doesn't. I know that is not much of an investment strategy but it is the new reality we are dealing with in these markets.<br /><br />I tell you what is going to be REAL interesting is how the markets react this next Tuesday evening, Wednesday morning if the Republicans do what is expected and win control of the Congress. <br /><br />The markets might love it because they could see it as some sort of check on the anti-business admin that we currently have. Not sure if they can do much of anything but the reaction of the markets is always fun to watch.<br /><br />Based on what I am seeing of that HUI/Gold ratio, gold is going lower yet. <br /><br />Trader Danhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-52443623257496793642014-10-30T13:40:22.313-07:002014-10-30T13:40:22.313-07:00Wow...those are some ugly numbers! :-0
I wonder h...Wow...those are some ugly numbers! :-0<br /><br />I wonder how low GDX will be allowed to plummet before they consider a reverse split. Maybe $13-ish?<br /><br />It'll be interesting to see how they deal with the bad optics that a low share price tends to convey imho.<br /><br />DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-65458560624023303302014-10-30T13:34:38.149-07:002014-10-30T13:34:38.149-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-60977696146955146142014-10-30T13:15:30.715-07:002014-10-30T13:15:30.715-07:00Higher mining costs, along with higher taxes on th...Higher mining costs, along with higher taxes on the miners by the host country means less profits. The reduction in the HUI/GLD ratio is partly based on this for sure. In other words, the shift in the ratio is structural and not totally unexpected. It's been developing for years. willydoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16716849781430555079noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-36650288085928329602014-10-30T13:14:21.041-07:002014-10-30T13:14:21.041-07:00I think you got a precursor the bottom falling out...I think you got a precursor the bottom falling out in gold with the HUI breaking through support around 180. AUY & GG are (were) probably the only miners held by mainstream institutions/funds. Morningstar even had a piece two days ago about how GG & AUY were becoming value plays. Then both missed earnings and AUY is down 17% on the day on 5x avg. volume (AUY lowered its dividend). MDLGTOhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15988611490410921827noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-8120062404036141362014-10-30T13:06:57.538-07:002014-10-30T13:06:57.538-07:00Dead Skunk in the Middle of the Road-Loudon Wainwr...Dead Skunk in the Middle of the Road-Loudon Wainwright<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uu5hzc2Mei4Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-84224644949159702032014-10-30T13:03:24.043-07:002014-10-30T13:03:24.043-07:00Assessing the road kill after the close:
GDX down...Assessing the road kill after the close:<br /><br />GDX down 7%<br />GDXJ down 8%<br />GG down 13%<br />AUY down 17%<br /><br />Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-58457609287382769642014-10-30T12:58:54.707-07:002014-10-30T12:58:54.707-07:00Here is my definition of overvalued. http://www.a...Here is my definition of overvalued. http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Market-Cap-to-GDP.php<br /><br />We are right up there with the dot com bubble.jmsvetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16695524442688262114noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-50558165083243167922014-10-30T12:55:43.027-07:002014-10-30T12:55:43.027-07:00Fundamentals count as some companies have been sma...Fundamentals count as some companies have been smashed this quarter after reporting softer numbers while others have played financial engineering games to keep the appearance of growth.jmsvetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16695524442688262114noreply@blogger.com