tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post2682795178362467267..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Gold Continuing to Closely Track the TIPS spreadTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger39125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-17060936916087306262014-07-19T23:10:04.582-07:002014-07-19T23:10:04.582-07:00"Oil's resiliency during a bearish phase ..."Oil's resiliency during a bearish phase could produce unexpected strength during the next bullish phase." - Eric de Groot<br /><br /><br />http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.fr/2014/07/review-of-oil.htmlAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-58416023668913304502014-07-19T12:01:15.919-07:002014-07-19T12:01:15.919-07:00Mark, you may have me beat on the platinum, or was...Mark, you may have me beat on the platinum, or was it palladium bet, but you are wrong to call gasoline collapsing. It is in 38 month sideways pattern from $2.50-$3.50. Currently undergoing another hard shake-out, but collapse, no, not hardly. I value the weekly charts most strongly. Have a good weekend!!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-9269964876028950012014-07-19T10:35:31.849-07:002014-07-19T10:35:31.849-07:00Mark- As Dan's chart indicates, inflation exp...Mark- As Dan's chart indicates, inflation expectations are reflecting the lull in commodity prices. Hard to say if gold will continue to buck the overall trend in commodities. It seems oil and gold are holding up better but maybe due to the geopolitical tensions? You wonder where those prices would be this week without the Malaysia airlines fiasco and the terrorists firing rockets into Israel. <br /><br />Also copper is quietly moving lower this week- seems like it got jarred on the China data that came out this week. <br /><br />After looking at Dan's chart on lean cattle posted this week, I am looking at the bounce up in cattle prices this week in the backdrop of overall weak commodities -(the Oct contract bounced this week to about a 65% fib retracement from its recent low) as a potential shorting opportunity. <br /><br />Oil went into deeper backwardation the last couple days after falling steadily for the last month (oil is "normally" in contango). if geopolitical tensions start to wean a spread trade may also prove to be profitable by short near month/long longer dated contract. This trade has been profitable but lost some ground after the bigs news this week.<br /><br />No doubt if oil prices fall, will be good for the PM producers (all else being equal) because it is such a energy intensive business.Trinity traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04724567191536534544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-72102785576864534542014-07-19T10:26:09.248-07:002014-07-19T10:26:09.248-07:00Alex Jones talks about a fight going on for people...Alex Jones talks about a fight going on for people's minds but he never mentions the fight going on within people's own minds.<br />When a person is suspicious of everything, including their own suspicions, they're lost.<br /><br />Maybe they should just stick to monitoring (NSA-lite) other people's private mesages "just in case" someone is plotting or talking against them. Ha!<br /><br />The PM blogosphere seems to be shrinking and the pools of thought and fresh subject matter is getting shallow and harder for some to panhandle from.<br /><br />Have a great weekend everyone...off to a street festival!DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-14922687453191761802014-07-19T09:40:16.585-07:002014-07-19T09:40:16.585-07:00Armstrong in today's comments on his site talk...Armstrong in today's comments on his site talks about some problems ahead next for the stockmarket. We'll see.Concordhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05015491360293136821noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-42196412118742913652014-07-19T07:58:40.465-07:002014-07-19T07:58:40.465-07:00Gerald "Angry Man" Celente is at it agai...Gerald "Angry Man" Celente is at it again.<br /><br />Poor guy missed one of the greatest stock market rallies ever recorded, so now he has another excuse to bash the bulls and the business media.<br /><br />Hey, I got a lot of respect for the guy, a smart businessman.<br /><br />Probably makes more money selling his Trends newsletter to thousands of frightened blue hairs than he could have made investing in S & P 500 stocks, LOL....<br /><br />Another "Enterprising Carnival Barker" making huge amount of money peddling fear.<br />Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13068811838777958318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-76234763918909753842014-07-19T07:53:03.841-07:002014-07-19T07:53:03.841-07:00Very interesting how commodities of every stripe, ...Very interesting how commodities of every stripe, race, and color are getting slammed, yet gold is very resilient.<br /><br />S. African miners shaping up a good cup and handle formation, upward moves out of these can be explosive.<br /><br />I think that every commodity hedge fund manager is now getting ready to bail out of energy, grains, meat, etc. and will be piling into gold and silver as the only outlier commodity class that is still going up.<br /><br />No doubt, due to the fact that industrial demand for PM's is accelerating, and at the same time, the global production of food and energy is also going vertical, pushing those prices down.<br /><br />It will be a perfect environment for gold miners, collapsing input costs and rising metals price.<br /><br />Let's see what happens.Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13068811838777958318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-14195945233219038682014-07-19T07:40:50.934-07:002014-07-19T07:40:50.934-07:00Agree Hubert! Also anticipate the day when the ex...Agree Hubert! Also anticipate the day when the expectations of higher interest rates come into play and thy start to move up- it will be time to short the Euro and the long bond. The euro short may happen before that. A couple trades for the ages!Trinity traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04724567191536534544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-301736032868967442014-07-19T07:29:51.396-07:002014-07-19T07:29:51.396-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-74181650594608986502014-07-19T05:53:56.661-07:002014-07-19T05:53:56.661-07:00OMG. I thought I had seen it all. That is just...OMG. I thought I had seen it all. That is just over the top batshit crazy. Every time you think that site can't get any worse...it does.Eric Originalhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09663512536878956249noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-32876524446097667722014-07-19T05:04:39.147-07:002014-07-19T05:04:39.147-07:00Hi Trinity,
SP500 is still within my red alert are...Hi Trinity,<br />SP500 is still within my red alert area between 1950 and 2000.<br />But you have to be very swift to short the SP500 and dodge the upwards reactions at the moment.<br />Sooner or later, a stronger correction will occur, but when?<br />Coulc be next monday. Could be next year. I hope I'll be there to ride the big wave down when it finally comes :)<br /><br />Dexter.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-82868193118484560402014-07-19T02:35:47.804-07:002014-07-19T02:35:47.804-07:00Hubert, you trade with good discipline. check out ...Hubert, you trade with good discipline. check out the long term bean charts, as I think there is lots more downside potential here. Weather is fine and hedgies are bailing as they know there is more to be made in bull mkts, like I think may be developing again in energy and pm.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-74938117316288625202014-07-18T22:37:38.144-07:002014-07-18T22:37:38.144-07:00Nice to see that gold reacts to inflation expectat...Nice to see that gold reacts to inflation expectations, rather than inflation itself :)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-58864203223014298322014-07-18T22:35:54.045-07:002014-07-18T22:35:54.045-07:00I mean I can't monitor prices all the time.
Wh...I mean I can't monitor prices all the time.<br />When I can, it is realtime :)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-70269489534677165222014-07-18T22:33:04.017-07:002014-07-18T22:33:04.017-07:00Gold, weekly time scale.
I can't monitor price...Gold, weekly time scale.<br />I can't monitor prices realtime, so I can't enter in most efficient price levels, such as 1290 given by the mlh inf upwards, as it would need a confirmation that the support is holding when hit on the shorter time units.<br />Being a trader on gold nowadays needs to be a full time activity :)<br /><br />http://i60.tinypic.com/xlwm7n.jpgAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-53954454329699495072014-07-18T22:28:48.350-07:002014-07-18T22:28:48.350-07:00The pattern in crude is tightening up... The only ...The pattern in crude is tightening up... The only ? in the SP500 is the negative divergence on the RSI and MACD over time (both daily and weekly charts). The neg divergence is showing up in the DOW and Nasdaq charts as well. One has to wonder how much longer it can go on without a correction that lasts for more than a day or two?Trinity traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04724567191536534544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-1209695666639938802014-07-18T21:31:18.440-07:002014-07-18T21:31:18.440-07:00agreed. With lower highs and higher lows as well, ...agreed. With lower highs and higher lows as well, so a decreasing volatility and prices looking for an equilibrium point, maybe around 100 $? <br />The only strong trend market I noticed within the few markets I'm monitoring has been SP500, with a strong straight trend upwards.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-35834933511543726392014-07-18T21:27:16.013-07:002014-07-18T21:27:16.013-07:00my gambling mood once more taking over my trading ...my gambling mood once more taking over my trading discipline :)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00335835171576180359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-5022500583297710912014-07-18T20:08:34.245-07:002014-07-18T20:08:34.245-07:00I'm not sure this contains any anomalies but i...I'm not sure this contains any anomalies but it sure does contain some absurdities...<br /><br />http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/5951/mh17-and-mh370-what-are-the-odds-whats-the-fallout<br /><br />DarkPurpleHazehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06725074790604681185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-44398278790847823252014-07-18T16:49:49.680-07:002014-07-18T16:49:49.680-07:00Dan- Your work on the tips spread/gold chart shows...Dan- Your work on the tips spread/gold chart shows a deflationary mood. Looking at the silver/gold ratio (you posted that chart a couple weeks back), it is holding pretty firm and hasn't moved back down. If the "deflation" trend spills over to silver, could one expect the Ag/Au ratio to fall back down as inflationary expectations subside? Maybe there is a viable spread trade here between the metals.... Trinity traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04724567191536534544noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-52050000615368990622014-07-18T15:41:39.957-07:002014-07-18T15:41:39.957-07:00Ladies, the crude is 4 years into a sideways patte...Ladies, the crude is 4 years into a sideways pattern bounded by $75-$115. There is no break-out or collapse, but I would think that something has to give sooner or later. The longer the sideways, the bigger the ultimate break-out. Good weekends to all.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15820220635483947518noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-58229944034203863392014-07-18T15:09:44.029-07:002014-07-18T15:09:44.029-07:00Mark...sigh...your economic nirvana has nothing to...Mark...sigh...your economic nirvana has nothing to do with economic news of any sort.<br />The FED is buying equities (either directly or indirectly) to create the illusion of economic recovery.<br />http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/1970s-great-inflation.asp<br />Read your history. Once inflation started in the 70's it took 20% interest rates to stop it and it took over 8 years. I remember the "Nirvana" back then...when the party stops it can be sudden and very unpleasant.<br />And for God's sake stop reading the people you hate! Just sit back and watch your wealth grow.<br /> Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12484142363488637120noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-15350824952559150982014-07-18T14:46:47.617-07:002014-07-18T14:46:47.617-07:00Mark from a TA perspective gasoline futures just f...Mark from a TA perspective gasoline futures just filled the gap from Feb. Energy is expected to go much higher with war tensions, thus so will gasolineThe Prophet Elijahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04786387211895954719noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-81786869315756744332014-07-18T14:18:54.731-07:002014-07-18T14:18:54.731-07:00Looks like a 1999 - 2000 repeat setting up.
DBC w...Looks like a 1999 - 2000 repeat setting up.<br /><br />DBC was poleaxed today with grains and gasoline plunging to new lows, sending the DBC ETF under March, April, and June lows.<br /><br />Which means the possibility of a 1999 - 2000 situation whereby commodity prices across the board completely implode and investors dump them and turn around and buy stocks instead.<br /><br />XRT and IWM both completely erased yesterday's losses with ease, and every money manager now sitting in cash will have to buy the DIA and SPY breakout which could occur next week.<br /><br />I don't think I've ever witness such "economic nirvana" like this, where stocks are soaring to new highs on mediocre economic news, interest rates still smashed at 40+ year lows for 6 consecutive years, and collapsing commodity input costs.<br /><br />In a nutshell, a perfect storm for the "Gloom and Doomers".Markhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13068811838777958318noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-41831621339367602212014-07-18T13:12:43.321-07:002014-07-18T13:12:43.321-07:00Brit
When the news first broke the headline was A...Brit<br /><br />When the news first broke the headline was Airliner Shot Down by Rebels.<br />They even stated the type of ground to air missile that was used, I am surprised they did not mention the serial number.<br />How did they know that so quickly ?<br />The false flags are getting sloppy.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12484142363488637120noreply@blogger.com