tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post1539971697289403499..comments2024-02-10T02:18:27.240-08:00Comments on Trader Dan's Market Views: Quick Thoughts on Today's Late Session action in the MetalsTrader Danhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05484363461047659198noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-26065268507251582202011-03-25T13:20:11.433-07:002011-03-25T13:20:11.433-07:00Dan,
thanks very much for this. i would have wait...Dan,<br /><br />thanks very much for this. i would have waited to go long until after the roll if i had known this before, and won't make the same mistake again.<br /><br />i think this kind of thing highlights why, regardless of fundamentals, traders need to pay attention to short-term supply / demand dynamics in these markets, and execute well-designed risk management techniques. to me, this is the best defense against a manipulated market in which one feels one must participate.<br /><br />good luck everyone!<br /><br />beeba :)beebahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15029314704269741196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-3024940252208017782011-03-25T06:36:37.042-07:002011-03-25T06:36:37.042-07:00Excellent analogy Maestro Dan! Your work is excell...Excellent analogy Maestro Dan! Your work is excellent and fun to read:)Winroll10https://www.blogger.com/profile/08210378124475977484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-67707370808130672432011-03-25T06:16:22.897-07:002011-03-25T06:16:22.897-07:00Thanks Dan.
The south shall rise again...Thanks Dan.<br /><br />The south shall rise again...Watcherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01017550857251040572noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-7811558301244662402011-03-25T05:47:44.730-07:002011-03-25T05:47:44.730-07:00Thank you, thank you, thank you!
An apprentice lik...Thank you, thank you, thank you!<br />An apprentice like me picks up the tricks of the trade one at a time. Your analogy will make it stick!<br />You are a true teacher, Dan.Dr. Jeromehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03006106422825163554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-43407371142595794912011-03-25T04:49:56.144-07:002011-03-25T04:49:56.144-07:00Mr. Norcini, I've learned much by observing ov...Mr. Norcini, I've learned much by observing over the past few years and this has to be one of the best analogies describing the financial market games. Thank you.<br /><br />I've noticed that these kind of feints can be seen across all chart time frames. During downtrends in price, pressure is released a bit and then slammed down to paint a short-term reversal. It's concerted, coordinated and utterly effective at breaking through stubborn support levels.<br /><br />During the long rises after intermediate swing lows (eg. end of this Jan to now), price movement is consistent at nearly 45-degrees the entire way on 4-hour and daily charts. Indicators rarely reach extreme levels before the price movement reverses course. It's as though the shorts are applying just enough pressure to sow uncertainty, preventing decisive action from being taken in building positions.<br /><br />At every point along the way, there is strong potential from a sharp spike down in the precious metals. This makes it difficult to trade very short-term. The only effective way is to understand how these masterful shorts operate.<br /><br />Because the shorts' collective backs are constantly against the ropes, there is little to no room for error. They have been able to eke out expert maneuvers since 2008, though the sheer volume of buying interest is gradually overwhelming their efforts. Due to this, there is enough of a correlation in pattern between 2010 daily charts and 2011 that a somewhat predictive indicator is present. At the very least, it can provide a guide as to the likelihood of whether a given day will be up or down.<br /><br />Of course, your own judgement trumps prior patters - if the breakout in the metals continues, they may completely separate from any relation to last year's price action.<br /><br />With rear guards, guerrilla/hit & run tactics and outright assaults on the commodity sector, this is most certainly a form of war. Attrition is the name of the game, though. Thus, the outcome is inevitable no matter how ugly it might be.<br /><br />Again, Mr. Norcini - thank you!Ramonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15177032531133914670noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-80003034151204352752011-03-25T02:40:42.737-07:002011-03-25T02:40:42.737-07:00@ David
It is interesting that the Chinese are en...@ David<br /><br />It is interesting that the Chinese are encouraging their citizens to buy PMs. It's sad really -- which government actually cares about their citizens, the US, or China?lord kooshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02990996827235679573noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-57504619147230979242011-03-25T00:08:41.050-07:002011-03-25T00:08:41.050-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08536959801661676160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-65976207815819383242011-03-24T23:38:50.997-07:002011-03-24T23:38:50.997-07:00@ReachWest Is that true about your teen son and f...@ReachWest Is that true about your teen son and friends buying silver? That's very alarming! When buying penetrates to that level, it always means buying is saturated and a speculative collapse is near. Just like when teens were buying tech stocks in 1999, and housewives were doing carry trades in 2008, and when Chinese students were day-trading Shanghai shares instead of attending class. Please say it's not so!!Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08536959801661676160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-42825482798995236802011-03-24T23:35:00.693-07:002011-03-24T23:35:00.693-07:00yes,great post Dan. FISD said it right, as well as...yes,great post Dan. FISD said it right, as well as everybody's interesting comments. <br /><br />Its true that the FED and JPM may have unlimited funds to play with and retail investors dont,but I imagine the chinese govt. has enough dollars to spend on the metals whenever they decide the correction has gone down far enough. and that will be the best time to buy...if something like that can be anticipated.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-74065767718387270492011-03-24T22:38:18.138-07:002011-03-24T22:38:18.138-07:00Many thanks from me too ... hopefully people in th...Many thanks from me too ... hopefully people in the market will start thinking of counter-strategies in order to foil these sucker punches. Your posts are invaluable to get folks thinking.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-37744539419816983582011-03-24T20:57:43.296-07:002011-03-24T20:57:43.296-07:00Dan, thank you for giving us all the benefits of y...Dan, thank you for giving us all the benefits of your insight and experience. Invaluable.sumohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16490367189677374605noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-25690852878897370522011-03-24T20:01:05.232-07:002011-03-24T20:01:05.232-07:00YEEEHAAWWWWWW!!!
a war?? not really. just busine...YEEEHAAWWWWWW!!!<br /><br /> a war?? not really. just business.....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-69515982496068242422011-03-24T19:17:08.030-07:002011-03-24T19:17:08.030-07:00Thanks Dan - that was a great post. I really enjoy...Thanks Dan - that was a great post. I really enjoy reading and learning from your most informative articles. <br /><br />At some point this gig is going to be up for the perma-bears.. In the meantime, I will continue quietly acquiring and holding physical PM's.<br /><br />As an aside .. My 19 year old son asked me the other day about acquiring Silver, apparently a number of his buddies are all interested in buying a few oz's each .. For whatever reason, they are talking amongst themselves about devaluation of USD and purchase of Silver .. Go figure ... Perhaps they word is starting to permeate the gen public.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-86552154330943570822011-03-24T18:49:39.470-07:002011-03-24T18:49:39.470-07:00Supposed to be spot not pot, my appologies Turdle ...Supposed to be spot not pot, my appologies Turdle GG for the miss spelling.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05531720387392412511noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-62830170376732701522011-03-24T18:13:06.662-07:002011-03-24T18:13:06.662-07:00Great article--i've been in silver positions o...Great article--i've been in silver positions off and on since 1986 and have observed and been bitten by this phenomenon (rollover time) many times before but never understood the whys and wherefores of it all. <br /><br />I always assumed it had something to do with people procrastinating on rolling over and being forced to do so at the last minute causing a rush to exit the front month--<br /><br />with this article as well as all of the recent research and disclosures on bank manipulations, especially demonstrating how they use this time as a signal time for all of the locals and everyone else to jump in, I now understand it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-62169729975576990692011-03-24T17:50:53.567-07:002011-03-24T17:50:53.567-07:00Traderdan! You are truly appreciated! You make the...Traderdan! You are truly appreciated! You make the veil of "black magic and wizardry" transparent! <br /><br />Thanksmalcolmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02225304139012525229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-17876685669405040672011-03-24T17:47:37.911-07:002011-03-24T17:47:37.911-07:00again, awesome Dan. Hopefully those long holders ...again, awesome Dan. Hopefully those long holders who were attacked today stick around & pony up the cash & wait for a sunnier day. <br /><br />I'm reminded of what I read today at the top of Mr. Sinclair's editorial & the only way to legitimately win this rigged game:<br /><br />"Nothing will unnerve the paper gold shorts more quickly and do more to undercut their confidence than to strip them of the real metal and force them to come up with more hard gold bullion to make good on deliveries. "Stand and Deliver or Go Home" should be the rallying cry of the gold longs to the paper gold shorts." --Trader Dan Norcinicaramelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16037173721286319471noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-87494280781919538592011-03-24T17:27:24.285-07:002011-03-24T17:27:24.285-07:00I'm a regular reader, seldom poster here in yo...I'm a regular reader, seldom poster here in your house. Awesome analogy and accurate description of what took place today. Keep up the good work!ColoradoGuyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08474203298682076868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-38935694075621808162011-03-24T17:24:34.107-07:002011-03-24T17:24:34.107-07:00Simply Awesome explanation, Thanks DanSimply Awesome explanation, Thanks DanPChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18395436465683344402noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-14666019399207036632011-03-24T17:24:15.394-07:002011-03-24T17:24:15.394-07:00It's one of their tactics. Remember back in 20...It's one of their tactics. Remember back in 2007-2008 when the stock market was first starting to tank, Bernake would wait until right before the open to cut rates. This would squeeze a lot of people who were short equities severely damaging their accounts.<br /><br />They pulled the same tactics with Bonds not long ago. Wait for a major techinical break only to reverse course.<br /><br />The biggest problem I have with all of this is that the Masters of the Universe have unlimited funds while ours is limited.RickRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05775454507554489794noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-64429815016274993902011-03-24T17:18:56.720-07:002011-03-24T17:18:56.720-07:00Dan, you continue to amaze with your posts. Thank ...Dan, you continue to amaze with your posts. Thank you for bringing sense to the gold and silver market... and the "War of Northern Aggression". :)<br /><br />Lee was quite a brilliant and incredibly strategic leader. Didn't hurt that he had a Longstreet either.Larryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12820258639423060074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-40987061413253975842011-03-24T16:46:26.380-07:002011-03-24T16:46:26.380-07:00TraderDan - Thank you for the time and effort in w...TraderDan - Thank you for the time and effort in writing this. it really helps the interested understand whats going down.<br /><br />Turd- thanks for directing people to this.SushiSiouxhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01464519460655716184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-79103399792823763932011-03-24T16:36:44.627-07:002011-03-24T16:36:44.627-07:00Bonus effort TD, may the heavens bless you. Truly ...Bonus effort TD, may the heavens bless you. Truly a duh moment watching the walls cave in today after a powerful up move. History buff too so the military reasoning analogy was superb. One of these days I will get better anticipating these. Most likely because I have learned from the master. How did the Union overcome these parries? Did Grant just keep shoving? overunning?Carolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14191429179138313235noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-16244460652358346352011-03-24T16:17:26.102-07:002011-03-24T16:17:26.102-07:00Great post Dan. I learned more in the last 5 minut...Great post Dan. I learned more in the last 5 minutes than I would have reading a years worth of main stream news.Juan Momenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00338411049307792839noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1708908742323002823.post-79048934513998840672011-03-24T16:16:06.385-07:002011-03-24T16:16:06.385-07:00Superb analogy and illuminating analysis... and I ...Superb analogy and illuminating analysis... and I second Turdle's comment.<br /><br />p.s. I call it the War of Northern Aggression.Heronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05564746817158760044noreply@blogger.com